CLIMATEWIRE | America’s energy transition will slow — but won’t stop entirely — if President Donald Trump is successful in repealing environmental regulations and slashing green subsidies, according to a pair of analyses released Tuesday.
The annual energy outlooks from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and BloombergNEF offer a window to the country’s potential energy future after Trump. Both project rising renewable electricity generation, even in scenarios where Trump’s deregulatory agenda is successful. And both forecast rising electricity demand through 2050, though the EIA outlook notably finds that overall U.S. energy demand will fall as homes and vehicles use less fossil fuel.
Coal generation, oil production and gasoline consumption are predicted to fare better in scenarios where Trump succeeds in rolling back regulations, under EIA’s projections. The agency — an independently operating data crunch branch of the Department of Energy — also forecasts big spikes in electricity prices over the next few decades.
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DOE blasted its own agency’s findings Tuesday.
“Today’s report from EIA reflects the disastrous path for American energy production under the Biden administration — a path that was soundly rejected by the American people last November,” DOE spokesperson Andrea Woods said in a statement. “By unleashing energy that is affordable, reliable, and secure, this administration is ensuring America’s future is marked by energy growth and abundance — not scarcity.”
The EIA outlook is the first since 2023. The agency paused the report last year to update its models.
Total U.S. electricity demand is expected to rise by roughly 50 percent by 2050 in EIA’s reference case. That forecast fits with broad expectations for big jumps in electricity demand as artificial intelligence and data center projects proliferate. It also follows increased electrification in the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act, the 2022 climate law that provided billions of dollars in tax credits and grants for new clean energy systems.
“It’s pretty clear that electricity demand is increasing and more end use demands are being met with electricity. Much of that was incentivized with the Inflation Reduction Act,” Joseph DeCarolis, the EIA administrator under former President Joe Biden, told POLITICO’s E&E News in an interview.
Republican congressional leaders are aiming to repeal parts of the IRA as part of an upcoming budget package. But Matthias Kimmel, co-author of the BNEF report, said policymakers need to invest even more in clean energy to tackle climate change and “capitalize on emerging opportunities surrounding energy supply and security.”
“Major investment and rapid deployment of clean energy technologies across markets is essential to materializing real change,” said Kimmel, head of energy economics at BNEF. The research firm covers the energy transition and is part of the wider media empire owned by Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor and an outspoken climate hawk.
AI boom
Rising electricity demand associated with data centers and artificial intelligence figures prominently in both EIA and BNEF outlooks.
EIA projects that commercial electricity sales will grow by roughly 20 percent through 2035 as a result of data center growth. BNEF sees a similar trend. Data centers are expected to account for 8.6 percent of U.S. electricity demand in 2035, up from 3.5 percent last year, the consulting firm said.
The EIA outlook predicts more modest growth in electricity demand than other recent analyses. In December, a report from Grid Strategies, a prominent consultancy, showed electricity demand could increase 3 percent annually in the second half of this decade. Wood Mackenzie also predicted in October that electricity demand in the U.S. will increase up to 15 percent by 2029.
EIA is projecting an 8 percent rise by 2030.
The agency on Tuesday published several sets of data, including its reference case, which assumes the implementation of Biden administration emissions regulations on power plants and the auto sector. It also published forecasts assuming no power plant and auto sector regulations, which are respectively referred to as the alternative electricity and alternative transportation projections.
EIA predicts that electricity prices will spike in both the reference and alternative electricity cases to more than 20 cents per kilowatt-hour by 2050. In 2024, the average price of U.S. electricity is 13 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to EIA.
In all circumstances, EIA said coal and natural gas consumption will fall in the U.S. over the next several decades. But the pace of that decline could depend in part on policy decisions.
Biden’s power plant rules require coal facilities to install carbon capture and sequestration by 2032. The EIA’s reference case shows coal generation falling 53 percent in 2032 as a result and declining 98 percent in 2050. But in the alternative electricity scenario, where the EPA rules are scrapped, coal generation would fall 48 percent in 2032 and 70 percent by 2050.
EIA foresees a similar story with oil.
EPA’s tighter vehicle emission standards under Biden lead to a 44 percent drop in gasoline consumption by 2050, EIA’s projections show. If those standards are repealed, gasoline consumption would still fall 17 percent by midcentury. Domestic oil production drops 15 percent by 2050 in the reference case but would fall 11 percent in a scenario where the vehicle emissions standards are repealed.
The reference case predicts natural gas consumption will decrease from roughly 31 quadrillion British thermal units (btu) in 2024 to 27.4 quadrillion btu in 2050. The alternative electricity case predicts gas consumption will drop even more to 26.8 quadrillion btu.
EIA also forecasts a cut in total energy use in the U.S. by 2050 — from nearly 94 quadrillion btu in 2024 to 88 quadrillion btu in the reference case and 89 quadrillion btu in the alternative electricity scenario with no power plant regulations.
Renewables expand
Notably, EIA sees a massive expansion in renewable generation regardless of the fate of EPA’s power plant rules. Renewable generation is expected to more than triple by 2050, becoming the country’s leading source of power generation by the early 2030s.
Those trend lines mirror BNEF’s findings. The future of U.S. clean power technologies “remains bright” over the coming decade, according to the outlook. Solar capacity is expected to triple by 2035 while wind capacity is expected to double over the next 10 years.
However, the research firm has scaled back its projections for clean energy based on Trump’s agenda. Its base case forecast for new wind generation is 15 percent lower than its 2024 outlook. The firm also lowered its prediction for electric vehicles.
BNEF now thinks U.S. emissions will fall 16 percent by 2035, compared to the 24 percent reduction it predicted for 2035 last year.
Under Biden, the U.S. produced more crude oil, natural gas and renewable energy in global history. The U.S. also dramatically increased shipments of liquefied natural gas abroad.
Trump has pledged to increase fossil fuel production, but the industry now faces new challenges.
The president has levied tariffs on a wide range of goods, including steel and other materials that are necessary for energy systems. Fossil fuel producers are also worried that an economic downturn will decrease demand for their products.
This story also appears in Energywire.
Reprinted from E&E News with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2025. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environment professionals.
