Bellwether District Has Some Very Bad News For Trump

Nebraska’s second congressional district went for Obama in 2008 and Biden in 2020. New polling shows Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump there by 11 points.

CNN reported on their poll:

The Cornhusker State has long been a Republican presidential stronghold, but its 2nd District has twice in recent history awarded its vote to the Democratic nominee, breaking for Obama in 2008 and for Joe Biden in 2020.

….

In Nebraska’s 2nd District, the poll finds, Harris’ broad lead includes a near-universal 96% among Democratic likely voters, with her numbers buoyed by the 61% support she holds among the district’s independent likely voters, as well as 10% among Republican likely voters. She leads Trump, 60% to 36%, among women, while Trump holds a much slimmer edge, 50% to 45%, among men.

Trump and his allies have been trying recently to take away the second congressional district’s electoral college vote, and given Harris’s lead, it is clear why. The bigger problem for Trump is that the last two times the second district flipped to the Democratic candidate, the Republicans lost the election.

The Democratic flips of that districts also mirror the two biggest winning popular vote margins in this century.

The city of Omaha is in the second district and it has been moving away from the rest of the state politically, but an 11 point lead is very significant, and as these data points are starting come in they could represent Harris’s continued momentum toward winning the White House in November.

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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.

Awards and  Professional Memberships

Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association

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