Spooky costumes and decorations aren’t the only frightening things this Halloween. For America’s biggest chocolate maker, the scarier sight may be the shoppers who aren’t showing up.
On Hershey’s third-quarter earnings call Thursday, executives said candy sales at convenience stores fell 5% in September across the category, and that the slump has continued into October as high gas prices and stubborn inflation squeeze household budgets.
Hershey CFO Dave Hulays said consumers are “more cautious on inflation,” pointing to gas prices and interest rates as sources of household strain. “They are making more deliberate choices across channels,” he said, with shoppers shifting more of their spending to mass retailers, e-commerce, and warehouse clubs.
Outside of convenience stores, Hulays said, the candy category grew 3.7% in the third quarter, and he framed the weakness as “more of a channel and trip problem, not as much a category issue.”
Paying more, buying less
Hershey’s results show the squeeze. The company’s third-quarter net sales rose 3% to about $3.28 billion, but that growth came from roughly 11 percentage points of higher prices, while volume fell about 10 points, according to its earnings release. Hershey also narrowed its full-year organic net sales growth outlook to about 3%, the low end of its previous range of 3% to 3.5%.
The pullback extends beyond Hershey. Halloween candy sales fell 6.7% in the month ending Oct. 17 compared with the same period last year, according to NielsenIQ data reported by the Associated Press last week. Small bags were the only size still growing, AP reported, while the average price of regular gasoline had climbed to $4.29 a gallon, up nearly 40% from a year earlier.
That doesn’t mean Americans are skipping the holiday. The National Retail Federation projects a record $13.5 billion in Halloween spending this year, up from last year’s $13.1 billion. That includes $4.1 billion on candy, which 96% of celebrants plan to buy. But the NRF also noted that shoppers are approaching the season with affordability in mind.
Cocoa is cheaper, but candy isn’t
Cocoa, the ingredient behind years of chocolate inflation, has come well off its highs. Global cocoa prices hit a record of about $10,710 per metric ton in January 2025, then fell to $3,241 by March, before rising again this spring as the Iran war disrupted fertilizer supplies to Africa and forecasters warned of El Niño, AP reported.
On the call, Hulays said the industry is coming off a historical surplus of 500,000 to 600,000 metric tons, with healthier inventories and more diversified supply as production rises in new regions such as Ecuador. “We don’t expect cocoa to remain at current levels long term,” he said.
Shoppers haven’t felt much relief yet. A 100-piece bag of Halloween candy now costs an average of $16.96, up 71% from $9.91 in 2021, according to FinanceBuzz. Government data show candy and gum prices up 44% over five years through September, AP reported. Higher costs for freight, packaging, and other non-cocoa inputs are keeping prices elevated.
‘We need consumers to show up’
With Halloween falling on a Saturday after a late Labor Day, Hershey is facing a compressed season. CEO Kirk Tanner, who took over in August 2025 after leading Wendy’s, said about 35% of seasonal sales happen this final week.
“The biggest selling days are still ahead of us,” Tanner said, adding that Hershey shipped more Halloween product than last year and that its displays are in stores. Consumer surveys show participation intent is in line with last year, he said.
“Now we need consumers to show up,” Tanner said. “The last few days are really critical.”
Looking ahead, Tanner, who wrote in Fortune last month about Hershey expanding its innovation pipeline, said the company will lean on new products and more affordable pack sizes and price points to win back cost-conscious shoppers in 2027.
