Why Is Chocolate So Expensive Right Now?

This story originally appeared on Grist and is part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Just four West African countries are the foundation of an industry worth more than $100 billion. In the tropical nations of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, rows of cacao trees sprout pods bearing dozens of seeds. Once harvested, these humble beans are dried, roasted, and processed into something beloved worldwide.

Chocolate has been coveted for millennia and, particularly on Valentine’s Day, is an unmistakable token of love. But as increasingly erratic weather continues driving up the costs of confectionery, the sweet treat has become a symbol of something much less romantic: climate change.

Two reports published last week found that warming is pushing temperatures beyond the optimal range for cacao growth in the countries at the heart of the world’s supply, particularly during primary harvest seasons. The research reveals how burning oil, coal, and methane is roasting the planet’s cocoa belt and skyrocketing chocolate prices.

“One of the foods that the world most loves is at risk because of climate change,” said Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at the nonprofit Climate Central, which wrote one of the two reports. “I would hope that by hearing that human activity is making it harder to grow cocoa, it might cause people to stop and think about our priorities as a species, and whether we can and should be prioritizing actions to limit future climate change and future harms to this food that we love so much.”

About 70 percent of the world’s cacao is grown in West Africa, with Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria the biggest producers. The bulk of the rest is grown in places with similar climates not far from the equator, such as Indonesia and Ecuador. The trees grow best in rainforest conditions with high humidity, abundant rain, nitrogen-rich soil, and natural wind buffers. Exposure to temperatures higher than 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit prompts water stress, hinders plant growth, and erodes the quality and quantity of seeds the trees yield.

Last year, warming added at least six weeks’ worth of days above that threshold in nearly two-thirds of cacao-producing areas across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, likely contributing to a disastrous harvest, according to the Climate Central report.

The researchers examined temperature data for the region and estimates of what might have been experienced over the past decade in a world without human-induced warming. They found that between 2015 and 2024, climate change increased the number of days each country experiences temperature ranges above the ideal for cacao growth by an average of two to four weeks annually. Most of those hotter days came during the main crop cycle, when the plants bloom and produce beans. Warming is also altering rain patterns, accelerating droughts, facilitating the spread of devastating diseases like pod rot, and contributing to soil degradation. Another new study found low rates of pollination and higher-than-average temperatures in Ghana have combined to limit yields.