Predicting the 2025 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction (and How to Watch It Live!)

The year that was has made its artistic judgments. Mostly. The world of film declared Anora as Best Picture. Music selected Beyonce’s Cowboy Carter as Album of the Year. Now, finally, on May 5th, book world gets its big moment. On Monday, at 3:00 p.m. EST, the award ceremony will be live streamed here. Pulitzer time is here!

As most of us book-loving folks know, there are a lot of book awards. The Pulitzer, however, is the one that seems to get the most attention. For a brief moment, with the announcement fresh, it’s like the world takes a break and celebrates books. For me, that kind of literary attention is a definite good thing—well, a definite great thing.

Some past winners include titles that I’ll always look forward to revisiting. I’m thinking of Gilead, The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier & Clay, Beloved, Lonesome Dove, Olive Kitteridge, and Demon Copperhead. These are just a few. 

Certain years bring total surprises that few could have predicted. For example, 2012 offered the huge shock of the winner being no one. Seriously, what a day that was. And, very recently–just in 2023—who predicted we would have two winners, Hernan Diaz’s Trust and Barbara Kingsolver’s Demon Copperhead? 

Other years have awarded the absolute and undeniable juggernaut. All the Light We Cannot See, The Goldfinch, and The Underground Railroad come to mind as contemporary examples. 

While it’s challenging to predict the annual Pulitzer Prize for Fiction winner, it’s honestly a lot of fun. 

Per my usual, in compiling this prediction list, I’ve tried my best to stay away from my own opinions in determining 2024’s literary bests, which is why you won’t see my personal favorite fiction books of the year—Grey Wolfe LaJoie’s Little Ones, Marguerite Sheffer’s The Man in the Banana Trees, Jen Fawkes’ Daughters of Chaos, Patrick Thomas Henry’s Practice for Becoming a Ghost, or Simon Van Booy’s Sipsworth–included below. Instead, I stick to previous awards, critics’ thoughts, buzz, and good old Bradley Sides intuition in guiding these predictions.

In order from long shots to shoe-ins, below are my predictions for the 2025 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction: 

10: Creation Lake by Rachel Kushner

Kushner’s latest is a spy novel with a nice dose of humor. That description might not sound like the usual kind of thing the Pulitzer folks go for, but don’t be surprised if Creation Lake shows up on announcement day. Kushner is brilliant, and this novel has already been shortlisted for the Booker and longlisted for the National Book Award. Plus, it’s on numerous “best of” lists. 

9: Craft: Stories I Wrote for the Devil by Ananda Lima

2009 was the last time a short story collection won, but another one has to take home the Prize at some point, and speculative titles seem to be getting more and more attention these days with literary awards. Maybe now is the time… Lima’s delightful and creative debut collection had a breakout kind of year (and was excerpted in Recommended Reading!). Kelly Link praised it, and the book received glowing recommendations from The New York Times, Publishers Weekly, and more. 

8: Beautyland by Marie-Helene Bertino

Bertino’s novel about home and belonging hit shelves soon after 2024 began, and it’s stayed a popular title since then, which proves just how much readers love it. It was a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award for Fiction, and it made “best of” lists at Literary Hub, Book Riot, The New York Times, and more. It was also excerpted in Recommended Reading!

7: Wandering Stars by Tommy Orange

Orange was a finalist for the Pulitzer in 2019 with his debut There There. Now, he’s back in major contention again with Wandering Stars, a book that follows the legacy of trauma. Orange’s novel packs incredible power, and it’s an important one. It’s received wide, wide praise from critics and readers alike. Among other accolades, it was longlisted for the 2024 Booker Prize, and it was shortlisted for the Aspen Words Literary Prize.

6: The History of Sound by Ben Shattuck

A time-spanning book of stories, The History of Sound is one of the most-loved collections of 2024. It recently won The Story Prize Spotlight Award, was longlisted for the Andrew Carnegie Medal for Excellence in Fiction, and received recognition from NPR, Kirkus, and more.

5: There is a Rio Grande in Heaven by Ruben Reyes Jr.

While there are three story collections on my list, There is a Rio Grande in Heaven is the one that is most likely to go all the way. The stories here are fantastic and fantastical, and there’s so much emotion in these pages. It’s the kind of collection you put away and find yourself going back to. The book has received much recognition, including being longlisted for the Andrew Carnegie Medal for Excellence in Fiction and the PEN/Faulkner Award. It was also a finalist for The Story Prize.

4: My Friends by Hisham Matar

Matar won the 2017 Pulitzer Prize in Biography for The Return: Fathers, Sons, and the Land in Between, and he is in absolute contention for the Prize in this year’s Fiction category. My Friends explores family and friendship, and the novel has received many accolades, including being a finalist for the National Book Award and winning the National Book Critics Circle Award. 

3: Two-Step Devil by Jamie Quatro

I know I said I try to keep my own opinions out of my list, but I can’t help myself with this one. Two-Step Devil is utterly brilliant and BOLD in regard to prose and in story, taking on issues such as God, loss, and mental illness. Quatro would have been a deserving winner already with either of her two previous books, but she’s at her best in her latest Southern Gothic masterpiece. The book won the Willie Morris Award for Southern Writing (Fiction) and has received praise from, among others, The New York Times, The Paris Review, and Atlanta Journal Constitution. It’s hard to imagine Quatro not showing up as a finalist. 

2: Martyr by Kaveh Akbar

Martyr is one of those novels that everyone seems to be talking about. It’s a special one, indeed. Full of love and humor and hurt, it’s received wide praise and would make a fantastic Pulitzer winner. It’s already been shortlisted for the National Book Award and been recognized by Time, The New York Times, and many (many, many) more. You can get a taste by reading an excerpted in Recommended Reading! I would say this one is our most likely winner, but there’s one other book you might’ve heard of…

1: James by Percival Everett

Everett certainly had a memorable year with James, a brilliant reimagining of Mark Twain’s Adventures of Huckleberry Finn. This book has been everywhere! And I mean it. It won the National Book Award. It won the Kirkus Prize. Barnes & Noble picked it as 2024’s best. It won the Andrew Carnegie Medal for Excellence in Fiction. It took home the Rooster in this year’s Tournament of Books. It was shortlisted for the Booker. It was a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award. It made countless “best of” lists. Readers and critics love it. James seems like our winner. We’ll know for sure very soon…