The stock market should rise from here, but the rebound will still likely leave many investors with big losses for the year, according to Goldman Sachs. David Kostin, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, cut his year-end target for the S & P 500 but still sees roughly 7% upside for the market. “We cut our year-end target to 4300 (from 4700) to reflect higher interest rates and slower economic growth than we previously assumed. Our new baseline forecast assumes no recession and implies the P/E ends the year unchanged at 17x,” Kostin wrote. Goldman also raised its 2022 earnings per share growth forecast to 8% from 5% this year, helping to support the idea of upside for stocks. Even if the S & P 500 reaches the new target, the S & P 500 would still be down 10% for the year. The market’s gain is likely to come later in the year as investors gain more confidence about the economy avoiding a recession, Kostin wrote, though a true economic slowdown could see a big drawdown for the market. “A recession would see the index fall by 11% to 3600 as the P/E drops to 15x,” Kostin added. That would represent a 10.5% drawdown. What to buy If investors do find some confidence as the year goes on, that could be good news for profitable tech stocks. Growth stocks have been falling broadly, taking out stalwarts and speculative names alike, but that could change from here, Goldman said. “Growth stocks have de-rated sharply YTD as financial conditions have tightened. However, growth stocks with high margins currently trade at the same 5x EV/sales multiple as low margin peers. We expect the multiples will diverge as investors prioritize profitability,” Kostin wrote. Goldman provided a list of those high-growth, high-margin companies. It includes two Big Tech names in Meta Platforms and Alphabet, as well as beaten-down semiconductor stocks in Nvidia and Micron . Of those stocks, Facebook-parent Meta has been the worst performer this year, falling roughly 41%. Nvidia is slightly behind at nearly 40%. Other companies on the list that have underperformed the broader market this year are Match Group with a 41% loss and Intuit with a 42% decline. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
