Here are the most important news items that investors need to start their trading day:
1. Dow on a tear
2. Bank earnings drive the day
3. Goldman drops recession odds
The likelihood of a U.S. recession in the near future appears to be falling, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank cut the probability of an economic contraction in the next 12 months to 20% from 25%. Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius cited economic data like first-quarter GDP growth and slowing inflation in increasing the projected chances that the Federal Reserve could rein in dramatic price increases without causing a recession in the next year. “But the easing in financial conditions, the rebound in the housing market, and the ongoing boom in factory building all suggest that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit at a below-trend pace,” Hatzius said in a research report. Though it has cooled from highs not seen in decades, inflation has proven stubborn to break — and the fight against it is not over.
4. Musk and Zuck will spar … with Congress
Regardless of whether they square off in a cage match, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have fights ahead. Democrats and Republicans in Congress are dialing up their scrutiny of the tech moguls and their businesses as both men expand their empires. On the Senate side, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to probe Tesla over its CEO Musk’s takeover of Twitter. She cited potential conflicts of interest, like the prospect of using the social media platform to benefit Tesla, and “misappropriation of corporate assets.” Meanwhile, the Republican-led House Judiciary Committee extended its probe of content moderation on the Zuckerberg-led Meta‘s social platforms to its new Twitter competitor Threads. GOP lawmakers have long raised concerns about what they call efforts to curb conservative speech on social platforms.
5. Alzheimer’s and RSV breakthroughs
Millions of Alzheimer’s patients could soon have more treatment options than seemed possible only a few months ago. Eli Lilly said it applied for FDA approval of its promising Alzheimer’s treatment donanemab, which slowed the disease in patients treated in the early stages of its progression as part of a phase three trial. The company expects a decision from the agency by the end of the year. It follows the approval of Eisai and Biogen‘s treatment Leqembi, which opened the door for broader Medicare coverage of the similarly promising treatment. Alzheimer’s is notoriously hard to treat, and the potential approval of two drugs to combat the disease could be a game changer for patients around the U.S. But the treatments could prove expensive and hard to come by for months or years, and both bring the risk of side effects like brain swelling or bleeding. The FDA also signed off on the first shot that protects all infants from respiratory syncytial virus regardless of whether they are healthy or have a medical condition.
– CNBC’s Samantha Subin, Hugh Son, Lauren Feiner, Lora Kolodny, Annika Kim Constantino, Spencer Kimball, Lee Ying Shan and Jeff Cox contributed to this report.
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