The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which featured Kevin Warsh’s first speech as chairman, is winding down Saturday.
Here are some of the key takeaways from the conference:
Warsh Emerging
Warsh used a keynote speech to hammer home a message that curbing inflation is the central bank’s top priority.
While parts of the speech served to double down on his stated determination to avoid offering guidance to financial markets on the direction of interest rates, Warsh did finally provide some insight into how he views the economy. That helped relieve some frustration among investors and added drama to the Fed’s next policy meeting.
The new message immediately triggered a jump in expectations for a near-term rate increase. In the wake of his remarks, attention turned to the next round of consumer inflation data, due Sept. 11, just days before policymakers gather in Washington on Sept. 15-16.
While Warsh didn’t signal explicitly his support for a hike, he warned inflation isn’t meaningfully slowing and that policymakers must be confident it is. Otherwise, he said, they had “work to do.”
Financial conditions, he added, weren’t restraining the economy, and he described interest rates as the Fed’s “predominant tool” for achieving its mandate.
“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job,” he said.
Warsh also dispelled fears that he intended to alter the Fed’s inflation goal. He said 2%, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, is a “firm, fixed target.”
Euro Worries
Policymakers from the euro area who spoke on the sidelines of the conference also sent a warning about inflation.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Primoz Dolenc told Bloomberg that resilience in the region’s economy and the persistent conflict in the Middle East suggest the need to hike rates in September. That’s widely expected by investors.
“With the new data coming in, we see that the inflation situation doesn’t resolve itself,” Dolenc said, who is also the head of the Slovenian central bank.
Martin Kocher, governor of the Austrian central bank and another ECB rate-setter, also highlighted that there’s “more momentum” in the economy. On inflation, which analysts estimate reached 3.3% in August, he said there’s “alertness, there is no complacency.”
Bailey in No Rush
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey had a slightly different message suggesting no urgency to increase rates.
“We’re seeing quite subdued second-round effects. I think we’ve seen a softening labor market for some time now,” Bailey told Bloomberg TV. “I’ve taken the view that I think we can watch this situation for the moment.”
Those were Bailey’s first public remarks on monetary policy since July 30, when he voted with the majority in a 6-3 vote to keep interest rates on hold.
No Shows
There were a few prominent absences at this year’s gathering. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda skipped Jackson Hole. Each are planning to attend a meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors Monday and Tuesday in Asheville, North Carolina.
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The only Fed policymaker not to attend was the former chair, Jerome Powell. He bucked tradition to hold onto his seat on the Board of Governors after his term as chair expired in May, but has since, as he pledged to do, remained out of the spotlight.
Tech Challenges
While the chair’s speech and the sideline chatter about economic and political events frequently dominate news from the symposium, Jackson Hole is also an important forum for high level debate on economic research. Papers presented this year revolved around the theme of financial innovation and its implications for payments and monetary policy.
The papers served to underline how central banks are struggling to keep up with challenges introduced by technology. In their discussions, economists and policymakers debated the regulatory challenges in a world where tokenization is revolutionizing how financial assets are held and transferred.
Lisa Cook
On the eve of the Jackson Hole conference, attendees got a reminder that President Donald Trump’s attacks on the central bank have not entirely ceased since his appointee, Warsh, took the Fed’s helm.
The White House has recently renewed its efforts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud, and on Wednesday Cook’s lawyer responded with a letter calling the allegations “unfounded and untrue.” The White House didn’t immediately comment on Cook’s letter.
Trump narrowly lost his initial bid to oust Cook at the Supreme Court, partly on procedural grounds.
