The wine industry’s fastest-growing category isn’t what you might expect.
While no- and low-alcohol wines grab headlines, a new research review suggests that mid-strength wines—sitting at 6-10% alcohol—could be the sweet spot that finally makes reduced-alcohol products mainstream. With a 12% annual growth rate between 2023 and 2027, the no-low-mid (NLM) wine category is reshaping how we think about drinking, but psychology may determine which products actually succeed.
Dr Hannah Ford’s comprehensive review at Adelaide Business School analyzed 38 peer-reviewed studies to understand what drives consumer interest in NLM wines. The findings reveal a complex web of social pressures, personal identity, and surprising gender dynamics that wine businesses are only beginning to understand.
The Gender Paradox in Wine Psychology
“The global wine industry is evolving rapidly in response to growing health-conscious and moderation-driven drinking trends,” Dr Ford explains. “The review proposes that appeal to NLM wines is influenced by social factors, habits, self-identity, emotional responses, and product tangibility.”
However, her research uncovered a striking contradiction. While women generally favor no- and low-alcohol wines more than men, the study found that wine consumption carries “strong symbolic association with femininity” that could create internal conflicts. Men face their own challenges, as non-alcoholic beverages are often perceived as more feminine, potentially threatening masculine identity.
This psychological tension helps explain why mid-strength wines might succeed where zero-alcohol options struggle. At 7% alcohol—the sweet spot where brands like McGuigan and PepperJack are positioning their products—these wines still feel like “real” wine to consumers’ brains.
The 46% Problem
One finding that didn’t make the headlines reveals a crucial flaw in current no-alcohol wines: nearly half of participants (46%) thought dealcoholized wine tasted like fruit juice. This perception problem creates a cascade of issues. When consumers don’t associate a product with “wine,” they’re less willing to pay wine prices or consume it in wine contexts.
Research consistently shows that “the lower the alcohol content the less likely consumers will be to associate it with ‘wine.’” Mid-alcohol wines may sidestep this problem entirely. By maintaining enough alcohol to preserve wine characteristics, they avoid the fruit juice trap while still offering moderation benefits.
Social Scripts and Identity Management
The research reveals that drinking decisions aren’t really about taste—they’re about social signaling. Regular wine consumption projects “prestige and sophistication” and allows consumers to display “affluence.” NLM wines face the challenge of competing with these deep-seated social meanings.
But generational shifts may be changing the equation. Celebrity endorsements from figures like Sarah Jessica Parker, who launched 7% alcohol wines, suggest that “chicer sobriety” could become the new social currency. The study found that younger consumers show greater acceptance of low-alcohol products, potentially driven by health consciousness and changing definitions of sophistication.
What’s particularly revealing is that 73.61% of consumers consumed non-alcoholic beverages in settings where others were drinking alcohol. This suggests NLM wines serve as social camouflage, allowing people to participate in drinking culture while making different personal choices.
The Science of Substitution
Dr Ford’s team applied behavioral psychology frameworks to understand why some people make the switch while others resist. The research shows five key psychological factors influence adoption: social influence, habit formation, individual identity, emotional responses, and product tangibility.
The study found that wine businesses themselves play a “pivotal role” in shaping consumer perceptions. Retailers decide what’s available, while marketers influence how products are positioned. This creates opportunities for strategic intervention.
Key findings that emerged from the analysis include:
- Consumers expect to pay less for NLM wines, viewing alcohol removal as getting “less value”
- Price sensitivity is especially high among younger consumers
- Marketing messages currently focus on health benefits but may miss deeper social needs
- Cross-cultural research is virtually non-existent, despite wine’s cultural significance
Beyond the Buzzwords
The research highlighted a major gap that industry players need to address: terminology confusion. Studies used wildly different definitions, with some calling 8% alcohol “low” while others used “medium-to-low” for 7% products. Current market products cluster around 6.8-7% alcohol, but academic research hasn’t caught up to these practical standards.
“The majority of studies reviewed low or reduced alcohol wines. Meanwhile, few focused on no-alcohol wine, and even fewer compared both no and low alcohol products,” Dr Ford notes.
This definitional chaos isn’t just academic nitpicking—it reflects the industry’s struggle to position products effectively. Without clear categories, consumers can’t develop coherent expectations or preferences.
The Religious and Cultural Dimensions
One aspect often overlooked in marketing discussions is religious acceptance. The research found that 81% of Malaysian consumers perceived dealcoholized wine as not halal, despite some products receiving halal certification. This religious complexity adds another layer to global market considerations that purely secular analyses miss.
The cultural significance of wine varies dramatically across regions, yet most research comes from just three countries: the UK, France, and Australia. This Western bias may miss crucial insights about how NLM wines could succeed in emerging markets.
Looking Forward
Dr Ford suggests that future research should focus on “emotional responses, cross-cultural influences, implicit decision-making, and the application of behavioural theories such as Cognitive Dissonance and Behavioural Reasoning Theory.”
The research indicates that successful NLM wine adoption requires coordinated efforts between consumers and industry. Wine businesses need better understanding of the psychological factors driving choice, while consumers need products that deliver on both practical and emotional benefits.
Perhaps most importantly, the study suggests that mid-strength wines represent more than just a product category—they’re a potential bridge between traditional wine culture and emerging health consciousness. Whether they can successfully navigate the complex psychology of wine consumption may determine the future of the entire industry’s relationship with alcohol.
As the global shift toward moderation continues, the winners won’t necessarily be the products with the lowest alcohol content, but those that best understand the human psychology behind every pour.
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