By Bethany Blankley (The Center Square)
A record number of Black and Hispanic voters are expected to vote for Republicans in the midterm elections, according to a new Wall Street Journal analysis.
According to its findings, 17% of registered Black voters said they would vote for a Republican candidate for Congress over a Democrat on Tuesday, more than double the percentage who did in 2020 and 2018.
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“The Republican Party is winning support from a larger share of Black voters than in other recent elections and has improved its standing in the past few months among Latino voters, the latest Wall Street Journal poll finds, adding to evidence of the party’s increasing appeal among groups that have overwhelmingly favored Democratic candidates,” the Journal reports.
The Journal polled Black voters in October and August and found that roughly 17% said in both polls they would pick a Republican candidate for Congress over a Democrat. The Journal notes, “That is a substantially larger share than the 8% of Black voters who voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 and the 8% who backed GOP candidates in 2018 House races,” pointing to an AP VoteCast survey.
While Hispanic voters still favor Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by 5% in the Journal’s October survey, that’ less than half of what it was in August when they favored Democrats over Republicans by 11%. By comparison, in 2020, Hispanic voters favored Democratic U.S. House candidates over Republicans by 31%, according to VoteCast, the Journal points out.
VoteCast also found that Democratic support dwindled among Hispanic voters primarily because of concerns about inflation and the worsening economy due to Biden administration policies.
Of the findings, John Anzalone, who conducted the Journal survey, said, “I think that this could be a paradigm-shift election, where Republicans are not only making inroads with the Latino vote, but they’re now making inroads with the African-American vote.”
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Anzalone, who served as President Joe Biden’s lead pollster in 2020, conducted the survey with Tony Fabrizio, who was Trump’s lead pollster in 2020.
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Fabrizio said of the findings, “It is wholly possible that Republicans reach a new high-water mark among both African-Americans and Hispanic voters in this election,” who for decades have traditionally voted Democrat.
The findings are consistent with other polls conducted earlier this year indicating that in Texas, for example, according to one poll, more Hispanic Texans say the Democratic Party doesn’t represent their values. According to another, Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores from south Texas has a higher favorability rating among Hispanics than Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York does.
It also comes at a time when three Congressional races in historically Democratic districts in Texas border communities are considered bellwether races that could indicate a shift among Hispanic voters in the state.
If Republicans Flores, Monica De La Cruz and Cassie Garcia defeat their Democratic opponents on Tuesday, they will be the first Republicans to win in their congressional districts in Texas history.
The poll commissioned by Texas Latino Conservatives found for the first time in history, a majority of Hispanic Texas voters said the Republican Party better reflects their values and priorities. The Republican Party held a 15-point lead over the Democrat Party for being most associated with “hard work;” an 8-point lead for supporting small business owners; a 7-point lead for fixing the immigration system; a 3-point lead for “protecting my way of life.”
Border security remains a top issue for Hispanic Texas voters. When asked “Which immediate approach would you prefer to solve the situation along the Southern border,” 57% said, “Increasing border security measures to stop illegal migrants from crossing;” 27% said, “Allowing more illegal migrants to seek asylum in the United States.” In South Texas, the margin was 60%-24%.
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The majority polled, 61%, said they were bothered by the direction of the Democratic Party; 57% said they disapprove of Biden’s job performance; 53% blame Biden for inflation; 53% blame him for high gas prices.
The polls also came after two life-long female Hispanic Democrat judges in west Texas border counties switched parties and are on the ballot on Tuesday running as Republicans. Both judges were among the first to declare an invasion at the southern border on July 5, citing an imminent threat to the lives of their residents.
Terrell County Judge Dale Carruthers said when she announced the switch, “I come from a Hispanic heritage, which was prominently Democrat. The chaos at the border and everything that’s been going on makes me realize that I needed to switch parties. I am very happy to be a Republican and to represent this great state of Texas as a judge.”
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who joined Carruthers when she made the announcement, said Carruthers “switched parties due to Biden’s failed open border policies,” and was “joining a growing number of Hispanics who have walked away from the Democratic Party.”
Both Abbott, and the west Texas judges, are expected to win reelection.
Syndicated with permission from The Center Square.
