How Trump dominated Middle East policy in his first five months back in office

Even his worst critics will eventually have to admit that President Donald Trump has dominated international and national events since he returned to office five months ago. 

His “masterful ambiguity” in the third round of the Iran-Israel War is simply brilliant. History will record it as such. 

You may have attended or watched either the Army’s birthday parade or a “No Kings” rally or perhaps just watched the U.S. Open on Father’s Day, but what will history note of the weekend’s events? 

That President Trump has controlled the events unfolding in the Middle East and has done so with extraordinary skill. 

ISRAEL’S ACTIONS AGAINST IRAN CREATE STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITY FOR US IN NUCLEAR TALKS, EXPERTS SAY

The most serious analysts in Israel agree. For example, Amit Segal of Israel’s Channel 12 —a sort of rare but highly respected combination of anchor, reporter and analyst along the lines in the U.S. of Bret Baier —Segal and others believe President Trump gave a green light to Prime Minister Netanyahu to strike Iran in this third round of direct Iran-Israel combat in the past 14 months. 

Iran entered Israel’s 10/7 Long War directly on April 13, 2024, and again on October 1 of that year by firing hundreds of missiles and bombs of all types via many attempted delivery mechanisms at the civilian population of Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces (“IDF”), with the assistance of the United States and other allies of the Jewish State, intercepted those two waves of attacks, and Israel absorbed some damage and loss of life and others injured. Israel responded with small but very precise counter-attacks that damaged Iran’s air defenses and which sent a message about Israel’s capabilities. President Biden and his team worked to restrain Israel from additional escalation on both occasions. 

After 10/7, as Israel reeled, Iran began a rush to weaponize its enriched uranium into a nuclear weapon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the order to advance to active planning of this past weekend’s strikes, shortly after President Trump’s sweeping victory in November and days before the capitulation of Hezbollah to Israel in the Lebanon theater of the 10/7 Long War in the same week of Trump’s triumph. 

But Netanyahu still needed at least tacit approval from President Trump, which he received after the expiration of the 60-day window which Trump had given the Iranian theocracy to engage in serious negotiations over the dismantling of its nuclear weapons program. 

Iran tried to play the president and that was a mistake of historic proportions. Now stories are flying about Iran’s desperate attempt to get the U.S. to stop Israel’s pummeling of the theocratic dictatorship which has ruled Iran since 1979 under first Ayatollah Khomeini and now Ayatollah Khamenei. Those two dictators are responsible for all the ruin Iran is experiencing now and for the past 46 years. Now the aging and obviously incompetent fanatic Khamenei has been allowed to survive to see the destruction of his madness. He may not live to see the overthrow of the regime, but he might. Because Donald Trump told him what he had to do and he not only rejected it, he repeatedly mocked Trump and threatened the U.S. 

Khamenei spent decades and billions building “proxy forces” in Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria’s Assad regime, the Houthis in Yemen and some militias in Iraq in a vain attempt to intimidate Israel and thus prevent its striking Iran’s nuclear facilities openly. 

Khameini is also suspected of trying to assassinate Trump and other American officials after Trump ordered the elimination of General Qasem Soleimani when this mastermind of Iran’s international terror network landed in Iraq on January 3, 2020 on a mission to kill more Americans. (The Islamic Republic of Iran is directly responsible for the killing, wounding and hostage-taking of thousands of Americans since Khomeini overthrew the Shah of Iran in 1979.)

In five months Trump has moved the United States from telling Israel “don’t attack Rafah” in Gaza, to “go ahead, strike Iran. They refuse to negotiate in good faith.” Netanyahu didn’t or need or ask a second time. And, for the first time in the many times Netanyahu has asked for the support of Israel’s military leadership for the strikes, the IDF agreed: Rise up and strike. 

All this time Trump has maintained a “masterful ambiguity” about his role. It is remarkable and unprecedented.

A name from long ago, Sir John Lawrence, should be mentioned here. Lawrence was the British governor general and Viceroy of India from 1864-1869, and used the term “masterful inactivity” to summarize his policy towards Afghanistan, a policy that became associated with the very long and successful tenure of Lord Salisbury as Prime Minister of the Great Britain, who served as the top official in the United Kjngdom three times at the height of its Empire, retiring finally in 1902. 

Salisbury adopted and used the Lawrence approach again and again. Trump may not be up on the details of the Great Powers’ maneuverings from the late 19th century, but he certainly knows how to play the new “Great Game” in the 21st century. 

Trump offers to mediate peace everywhere and always. He also always tells our enemies to not kill or wound Americans or they will feel the full force of the American military. And he knows, as only very experienced real estate developers do, when to make offers, when to withdraw them or condition them —and when to walk away. 

The past 60 days of “negotiations” between Iranian representatives and Special Envoy Witkoff were a genuine window for Iran to avoid the punishment it is now absorbing from Israel. Trump has offered to again dispatch Witkoff and now the U.S. has much greater leverage for those talks if they resume. President Trump is allowing Israel weeks to degrade Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs —and possibly destroy its energy export lifeline if Tehran continues to target Israeli civilians. He has not said so publicly, but he warned Khamenei it could come to blows. 

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Trump is a master messenger.  He basically messaged the “border is closed” and spoke that into closure. He is now messaging the criminal element among the millions of migrants that crossed the open border in the Biden years to get out or get arrested. He’s messaged the Congressional GOP to get the “One, Big Beautiful Bill,” H.R. 1, done and done.  

And he’s messaged American pride in its military with the Army’s birthday parade, which is best understood as part of our country’s 250th birthday celebration which culminates on July 4, 2026.

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Trump lives inside the heads of his opponents. The absurdity of the “No Kings” theater is just the latest example of how the left wing of the Democratic Party not only dominates it but also lacks even a basic grasp of where the majority of the country is politically. That majority elected Trump overwhelmingly and overwhelmingly both supports law enforcement at every level of government and condemns political violence, whether from the left or the far right. (Trump’s condemnation of the Minnesota killer was quick and complete. As someone who has himself at least twice been the target of assassins, I expected nothing less.)

Trump has 43 months left as president. I hope they are as successful as his first five months back. 

Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor, and host of “The Hugh Hewitt Show,” heard weekday mornings 6am to 9am ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel. Hugh wakes up America on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel’s news roundtable hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET. A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle. Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcast, and this column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today.

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