Survivor 44 Finale Predictions: Who Will Win?

The finale of Survivor Season 44 looms.

There’s no denying this season has been chaotic, with one of the best all-around casts we’ve seen in years.

There may have been a few too many advantages and idols that interfered with the natural flow of the game, and some that didn’t have any effect at all, some that were teases that left the game unceremoniously without a payoff.

But that’s the “reality” part of a reality show — even with heavy involvement on the production side (some might say interference), you can’t deny that it’s been entertaining.

Let’s take a look at the Final Five and compare their chances of winning.

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt

Heidi is the final remaining Soka. Originally from Puerto Rico, by way of Pittsburgh, Heidi is the oldest woman on the season, and the fact that she has made it to the finale with such a distinction is more impressive than she’s getting credit for.

Heidi has been a quiet, consistent presence throughout the season. Despite finding idols and being the first player to use the “Control the Vote” advantage, Heidi’s presence and play have always felt muted.

How much of an impact has she really had on the overall game? It could be due to her narrative style, which is more straightforward than the exuberance of Carolyn, Yam-Yam, Jaime, and others.

The editors have not given her many confessionals, so we don’t feel like we know her as well. She feels like an afterthought, which is unfair, considering she has made it this far.

Heidi has always been there, and she’s a sensible player. Unfortunately, in this season, that gets punished with less air time. She’s been the target a few times but never in any real danger.

The odds are strong that she will make it to the Final Tribal Council but get maybe one vote (Danny). If she can find the idol again and play it at Final 5, she might have enough moves on her resume to impress the jury.

Lauren Harpe

On the other side of the coin, we have Lauren Harpe, the strong single mom from Texas, the sole representative left from the Ratu tribe.

Heidi and Lauren’s stories have many parallels, mainly because they have had to fight to stay relevant in the shadow of the magnetic, charismatic Tika players whose confessionals dominate the narrative.

Lauren has already won two immunities. There are currently three Ratus on the jury. A Lauren win would be baffling simply because we, as viewers, don’t feel as much of a connection to her.

We have indeed had unpredicted winners that didn’t look like they had a shot coming out of the penultimate episode. No one saw Gabler coming.

In my review of Survivor Season 41 Episode 12, I didn’t think Erika had much of a chance, and yet she pulled it out and won the whole thing. Anything can happen these days.

Lauren has played under the radar and won immunities, proving herself a strong competitor and a worthy winner. Her best shot is probably a Final Three with Heidi and Carolyn.

It’s also entirely possible (though it seems unlikely that due to immunities and fire-making) we could end up with a Final Three made up of something like Lauren, Heidi, and Carson.

Carolyn could be removed at Final Five if Lauren wins another immunity and Yam Yam loses to Carson in the fire. Wouldn’t that be something?

Carson Garrett

The NASA engineering student from Atlanta has been through a lot this season. He’s the most level-headed of the Three Stooges, and his social game has been unmatched.

His attitude of deference made him everyone’s little buddy, and he showed vulnerability during his period of illness. He hasn’t disclosed his braininess, though he has shown mastery at puzzles.

The thing that Carson has over the others is that he is aware of the game he wanted to play and has played from the start.

It’s likely he would be able to articulate this game, his strategy, the secrets he kept, and how he remained the level-headed one and successfully navigated the Yam Yam/Carolyn chaos.

This is, of course, provided he makes it to Final Tribal Council. If you’ve been watching closely, you’ll notice Carson is often pictured near the fire, with the flames reflecting in his glasses.

He will likely be in the final fire-making challenge, whether he puts himself in, loses, or wins. Seeing him put himself in the final fire-making and lose would be devastating. He could likely win without it, but the other players might convince him to put himself in to prove his worth to the jury.

Carolyn Wiger

No matter whether our Lobster Queen wins or loses, we were blessed to have her on our screens this season.

Exemplary casting is what keeps Survivor relevant after over twenty years, and Carolyn is a shining example of them hitting a home run. Her facial expressions alone have been a gift to the GIF gods.

Carolyn has the wackiness of a Noura type (she even compared herself to Survivor Season 39‘s Noura Salman in the pre-game), but she has had a consistently intuitively accurate read of the game this whole time; it’s just a matter of if she can articulate that if she makes it to Final Tribal Council.

She has been discounted consistently by the other players, sometimes flat-out ignored, and had a rough go at first ingratiating herself in the merged tribe.

As much as the audience adores Carolyn, she’s probably got the toughest sell of the Tika three, though her speech at the last tribal council proved she knows how to spin the story to justify her play.

She’s not as universally adored as Carson and Yam Yam, but she may be the most respected, considering the journey she has been on.

Carolyn will likely find Heidi’s re-hidden immunity idol and play it at the next vote because that will be the only time she can play it. She’s found her footing, both strategically and socially. She’s got the confidence to see this through. She just needs not to second-guess herself.

Carolyn’s wacky first confessional opened the season, setting up the chaos that was to ensue — can she bookend it with a Sole Survivor coronation?

Yam Yam Arocho

Puerto Rican salon owner Yam Yam Arocho is another fan favorite. He has gotten by without any advantages and often with his back against the wall.

Everyone loves Yam Yam. He was, like Carolyn, considered a joke by some thanks to his “poop in the ocean” bit in Survivor Season 44 Episode 1, but now he and his Tika tribemate stand the best chance of winning.

Yam Yam is the kind of player that threads the social needle expertly. He is universally liked by the other players, but not enough for them to want to vote him off.

His only caveat might be that his game has felt more defensive than offensive. He was often the target, but he always managed to deflect and stay one step ahead of those who wanted to move him.

If he gets to the end, Yam Yam looks to have the best odds with the current jury makeup. His path to the end seems the most straightforward. Put him in any combination of a Final Three, and his odds remain high.

As long as he can make the jury feel good about voting for him, he’s got this in the bag. His charisma and his subtle cutthroat approach in the second half have made him the logical frontrunner.

It would be a shock if he were voted out in the first tribal of the evening, but if the women decide he is the more significant threat than Carson, they might just turn on him.

Not since Cook Islands have we seen such a rag-tag group of outsiders dominate. Truly, there has never been a trio as iconic as Yam Yam, Carolyn, and Carson.

So many people have been lost in the shadow of the Three Stooges — even Jaime would have had more screen time on any other season.

We’ve had deeply unsatisfying losses before, such as Survivor Season 43 when we watched everyone’s winner-pick Jesse lose in fire-making. 

It’s vital for the remaining players to consider who actually is a threat to win should they reach the final tribal. Do the Three Stooges consider Lauren and Heidi threats, or do they realize that they need to take out one of their own?

Sometimes the threat to win doesn’t become apparent until the Final Tribal Council (like the last three winners).

Will Carolyn and Yam Yam finally become adversaries? Will either have the strength to team up with Carson and take the other one out?

In terms of the arc of the season, it would be beautiful to have Carson, Carolyn, and Yam Yam sit at the end together. But one of them will probably not be there, maybe allowing Heidi to take a third spot instead of Carolyn.

The Tika Three are endgame, make no mistake. Their story has been the dominant one all season. A Heidi-Lauren-Carolyn Final Three would be fun for no other reason than that it would be one woman from each of the starting teams.

We may get two Tika members on the jury, but it seems unlikely. That would be a helluva end to the Three Stooges arc — they turn on each other and get picked off until only one remains. Does anyone want to see that?

Currently, the jury comprises three former Soka (Frannie, Matt, Danny) and three former Ratu (Kane, Brandon, Jaime). Carolyn’s really only got one vote guaranteed, and that’s Frannie (though it’s possible Frannie and Matt will form a little voting block).

There are often upsets (see our Weirdest Winner Edits article to get the rundown on some of the most egregious examples).

Every player has a path to the end, but the difference between a Final Tribal Council loser and a winner could be apparent as soon as the first immunity challenge is over.

In the end, Survivor’s production wants to craft a satisfying narrative, with twists and surprises to keep the viewer entertained, but that ultimately showcases a deserving winner.

Yam Yam is my winner pick, but I would love Carolyn to take it home, proving that you can be both an emotional and strategic player. Carson would also be a satisfying winner. If it’s Heidi or Lauren, they definitely deserved it, but the editors did them dirty.

Who do you think will take home the title of Sole Survivor? Who are you rooting for? Do you agree with our final predictions? Share your thoughts in the comments!

The Survivor 44 Season finale (with aftershow) airs on CBS on Wednesday, May 24.

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