‘Uncanny Valley’: Iran’s Threats on US Tech, Trump’s Plans for Midterms, and Polymarket’s Pop-up Flop

Kate Knibbs: So, you went twice?

Makena Kelly: Yes, Kate. I went twice.

Kate Knibbs: I missed that.

Zoë Schiffer: Wait, is the Pentagon Pizza thing a joke about the pizza predicting the war?

Makena Kelly: Yeah.

Zoë Schiffer: Oh, my God.

Makena Kelly: Because they had these Pentagon pizza trackers up. When I returned the second night, yes, I came back the second night. Everything was working for the most part. There were still some screens that were turned off, but I never saw any actual Bloomberg terminals. There were some monitory Bloomberg type terminal things that it looked like Polymarket had developed themselves, but the real $50,000 Bloomberg terminal was nowhere to be found. And yeah, the second night, again, it was mostly people looking to gawk at the event, except I did find a couple of people who placed some bets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. One was named William, and he said he was a member of the military, wouldn’t give me his full name. And he last year got involved in this for the first time by putting in, I think, all of his tax return into Oklahoma City sports betting.

Makena Kelly, archival audio: So, you used Kalshi?

William, archival audio: Yes.

Makena Kelly, archival audio: When did you first start using the service?

William, archival audio: Probably when I got my tax return back.

Makena Kelly, archival audio: OK.

William, archival audio: So, I filed my taxes pretty early and I was like, “Oh, sweet. I got my tax return. What am I going to do with it?” So, I was like, “I’m going to just put it on Kalshi.”

Makena Kelly: He said that he goes up and down 100 dollars, but he hasn’t made any major winnings. Some of the stuff that we’ve heard. Some people making crazy insider bets making millions and millions of dollars. This is just a guy who was interested in this and just plays it for fun, it sounds like.

Brian Barrett: Kate, what do you see when you see a pop-up like this and Polymarket trying to—is it an attempt to legitimize itself to just a marketing stunt? And how does it tie into what you’re seeing with these companies anyway, that there’s the explosive growth that they’ve got trying to reach out to so many people and getting so many people hooked on what they’re offering?

Kate Knibbs: I mean, this particular event definitely seems like a very bald effort to woo DC-based journalists, if nothing else. One thing that Makena said sort of encapsulates what’s going on right now, the thing about the guys in the Palantir hoodies. So, I think it was the same week that this bar opened. Polymarket announced a partnership with Palantir and Palantir is helping them protect the integrity of their sports market. So, Palantir is going to be basically attempting to help Polymarket catch insider traders and market manipulators in all the sports games, which is kind of wild. I actually asked Polymarket last week whether they had any other deals with Palantir when I was trying to get them to say anything about whether they were investigating the Iran bets that have been raising a lot of eyebrows. And they said that Palantir was only helping them with sports, which I thought was freaking weird. And it speaks to how they’re rapidly expanding, but doing so in this really messy ad hoc way that doesn’t really make a lot of sense. Because I was like, “If you’re going to get Palantir involved, why wouldn’t you have them do this geopolitical stuff instead of March Madness?” Yeah, wild, wild times.