There is an election happening in Kentucky this week. Governor Andy Beshear, the incumbent Democrat, is facing a challenge from Republican Daniel Cameron.
Just a few weeks ago, Beshear was 16 points ahead. Now the race is a dead heat and it looks like all the momentum is on Cameron’s side.
From Emerson College Polling:
Kentucky 2023 Poll: Cameron Catches Up to Beshear in Governor’s Race
The final Emerson College Polling survey of Kentucky voters before the 2023 gubernatorial general election finds incumbent Governor Andy Beshear and Attorney General Daniel Cameron in a dead heat: 47% support Beshear and 47% support Cameron. Two percent support someone else and 4% are undecided. Undecided voters were asked which candidate they lean toward at this time; with their support accounted for, Cameron holds a slight advantage with 49% support to Beshear’s 48%.
Since last month’s poll of registered Kentucky voters, Beshear’s initial support has decreased by two points, 49% to 47%, while support for Cameron increased 14 points from 33% to 47%. Undecided voters have reduced by nine points, from 13% undecided to 4% ahead of the Tuesday election.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Cameron appears to have gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. In October, 54% of Trump supporters supported Cameron; now, as election day approaches, that number has jumped to 79% – a 25-point increase. Notably, October’s poll was of registered voters in Kentucky, while this final election poll includes only those who are very likely or have already voted in Kentucky.”
Support for Cameron has increased among older voters in Kentucky since the October poll. A majority of voters (58%) ages 50-69 now support Cameron for governor, a 22-point increase from October, where Cameron held 36% support among the same age group. Beshear’s support among 50-69-year-olds has dropped 9 points since October, from 49% to 40%.
Talk about a close race.
KENTUCKY POLL
Gubernatorial Election
Andy Beshear 47%
Daniel Cameron 47%
Someone else 2%
4% undecidedWith undecided push:
Cameron 49%
Beshear 48%10/30-11/2, KY LV, n=1,000, +/- 3%https://t.co/tMGHV8Jr6j pic.twitter.com/tu9pggogCZ
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 3, 2023
Politico suggests this election is a referendum on Biden:
Kentucky is about to give us a major test of Biden’s unpopularity
To win a second term as governor next week, Andy Beshear needs to prove that the Democratic Party isn’t dead and buried in places like the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields.
And he needs to do it with unpopular President Joe Biden in the White House.
Democrats repeatedly invoked the specter of Trump to energize their base and defeat GOP candidates in blue states. Now, Republicans are hoping Biden’s deep unpopularity will help them in places like this.
This will be a race to watch on Tuesday.
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