PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards, Scott Feinberg, reflects Feinberg’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself.
*BEST PICTURE*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert & Jonathan Wang)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison & Christopher McQuarrie) — podcast (Bruckheimer)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Malte Grunert)
4. The Fabelmans (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin & Martin McDonagh)
6. Tár (Todd Field, Scott Lambert & Alexandra Milchan)
7. Elvis (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Pamela McCormick & Schuyler Weiss)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron & Jon Landau)
9. Triangle of Sadness (Philppe Bober & Erik Hemmendorff)
10. Women Talking (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner & Frances McDormand)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
2. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
3. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) — podcast coming this week
4. Todd Field (Tár)
5. Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
*BEST ACTOR*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Austin Butler (Elvis)
2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
3. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) — podcast
4. Bill Nighy (Living)
5. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast 1 and 2
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
3. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
4. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) — podcast
5. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast coming this week
2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — podcast
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
3. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
5. Hong Chau (The Whale)
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Projected Order of Finish
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell)
2. Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
3. Living (Kazuo Ishiguro) — podcast
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh) — podcast coming this week
3. Tár (Todd Field)
4. The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
5. Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alex Bulkley, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson & Gary Ungar) — podcast 1 and 2 (del Toro)
2. Turning Red (Lindsey Collins & Domee Shi)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (Dean Fleischer Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan & Paul Mezey)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Joel Crawford & Mark Swift)
5. The Sea Beast (Jed Schlanger & Chris Williams)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Navalny (Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae & Daniel Roher)
2. Fire of Love (Shane Boris, Sara Dosa & Ina Fichman)
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John Lyons & Laura Poitras)
4. All That Breathes (Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann & Shaunak Sen)
5. A House Made of Splinters (Monica Hellström & Simon Lereng Wilmont)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Projected Order of Finish
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) — Edward Berger
2. EO (Poland) — Jerzy Skolimowski
3. Close (Belgium) — Lukas Dhont
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) — Santiago Mitre
5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) — Colm Bairéad
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*
Projected Order of Finish
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
2. Elvis (Mandy Walker)
3. Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)
4. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Darius Khondji)
*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Elvis (Catherine Martin)
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter) — podcast
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)
4. Babylon (Mary Zophres)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
*BEST FILM EDITING*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
3. Elvis (Matt Villa & Jonathan Redmond)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E. G. Nielsen)
5. Tár (Monika Willi)
*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Elvis (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier & Aldo Signoretti)
2. The Whale (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin & Adrien Morot)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Linda Eisenhamerová & Heike Merker)
4. The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Fontaine & Mike Marino)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend & Joel Harlow)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*
Projected Order of Finish
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
2. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
4. The Fabelmans (John Williams)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Projected Order of Finish
1. “Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — Chandrabose & M.M. Keeravaani
2. “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems
3. “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — BloodPop & Lady Gaga — podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga)
4. “This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski — podcast (Byrne)
5. “Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren — podcast 1, 2 and 3
*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Babylon (Anthony Carlino & Florencia Martin)
2. Elvis (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin & Karen Murphy)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper)
4. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole & Ben Procter)
*BEST SOUND*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Elvis (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson & Wayne Pashley)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil & Markus Stemler)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor & Mark Weingarten)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers & Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
5. The Batman (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson & Mark Weingarten)
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri & Eric Saindon)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson & Ryan Tudhope)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller & Frank Petzoid)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick & Chris White)
5. The Batman (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon & Dominic Tuohy)
*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*
Projected Order of Finish
1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (Matthew Freud & Charlie Mackesy)
2. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It (Lachlan Pendragon)
3. My Year of Dicks (Sara Gunnarsdóttir & Pamela Ribbon)
4. The Flying Sailor (Amanda Forbis & Wendy Tilby)
5. Ice Merchants (Bruno Caetano & Joao Gonzalez)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Stranger at the Gate (Conall Jones & Joshua Seftel)
2. The Martha Mitchell Effect (Anne Alvergue & Beth Levison)
3. How Do You Measure a Year? (Jay Rosenblatt)
4. The Elephant Whisperers (Kartiki Gonsalves & Guneet Monga)
5. Haulout (Maxim Arbugaev & Evgenia Arbugaeva)
*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*
Projected Order of Finish
1. Le Pupille (Alfonso Cuarón & Alice Rohrwacher) — podcast 1 and 2 (Cuarón)
2. The Red Suitcase (Cyrus Neshvad)
3. An Irish Goodbye (Tom Berkely & Ross White)
4. Night Ride (Gaute Lid Larssen & Eirik Tveiten)
5. Ivalu (Rebecca Pruzan & Anders Walter)
