Cannes 2025 Oscars Hopefuls: Nouvelle Vague, Jennifer Lawrence

Exactly one week after the opening of the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, there are at least three things that everyone here at the fest seems to agree on.

Firstly, in what is probably a reflection of these uncertain economic times (thanks, Trump), there has been a striking dearth of promotional fanfare along the Croisette, where tons of installations, stand-ups and stunts can usually be found. This year, it’s really just been luxury cars and, in front of the Carlton, a Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning display.

Secondly, there have been precious few announcements of high-profile acquisitions, which could be for the same reason, or because many of the hotly-anticipated films have thus far underwhelmed fest attendees, or perhaps because distributors, in a post-Emilia Pérez era, are taking a bit more time to vet potential partners before committing.

Thirdly, a year after a record number of films that premiered at Cannes went on to Oscar nominations and wins, only a handful have emerged that seem to possess the quality, subject matter and potential endurance to remain in the Oscar conversation more than half a year from now when Academy members start casting their ballots.

The strongest bet among the films that have screened thus far is, in my opinion, Richard Linklater’s competition/sales title Nouvelle Vague, a loving homage to the French New Wave and specifically to the 1960 classic Breathless.

It will never find a more friendly audience than it did at the Palais: it’s in French, it references Cannes, and, as a movie about the magic of the movies, shot in beautiful black-and-white, it’s a cineaste’s wet dream, hence the effusive standing ovation that it received after its premiere. (Linklater’s contemporary Quentin Tarantino seemed particularly excited about it.)

Nouvelle Vague might well walk away with the Palme d’Or or another major prize — I imagine that it would appeal to quite a few members of the competition jury presided over by Frenchwoman Juliette Binoche, and that, in a close call, jurors would break for Linklater, a revered filmmaker and Francophile (see: his Before trilogy) who has never won a major Cannes prize.

Regardless, in the right hands, the film — a curio like The Artist, another unusual ode to cinema, which swept the Oscars 14 years ago — could contend for noms for best picture, director, screenplay (I’m not sure if it would be considered original or adapted), cinematography, film editing and perhaps more.

The big question, which may be holding up its sale, is whether or not France would ever submit, as its entry for the best international feature Oscar contest, a film that was directed by an American, but is otherwise French in almost every way. (France doesn’t exactly have a great track record of making strategically smart decisions in that category.) If so, it could prove hard to beat.

Nouvelle Vague would make sense for a number of distributors, from Sony Classics, the chiefs of which have close ties to France (Michael Barker and Tom Bernard were even inducted into the French Legion of Honor) and worked directly with some of the French New Wave filmmakers late in their careers, to Sideshow/Janus, which owns the rights to many French New Wave titles and makes them available through its Criterion Collection and Criterion Channel.

But I’d also keep an eye on Netflix, which just last year was “in business” with France (taking Emilia Pérez as far as anyone could have) and Linklater (distributing his film Hit Man in select theaters for two weeks before dropping it on its service). An upside to the film going with a streamer, as far as its Oscar prospects: it would not face pressure to perform at the box office — and it’s no sure thing that it would perform at the box office.

Another non-English-language sales/competition title that was unveiled during the fest’s first week and could wind up in the best international feature race: Mascha Schilinski’s German-language Sound of Falling, a drama that jumps between four different eras, highlighting women living on the same farm in Germany. It garnered raves from critics but polarized audiences, so I suspect its awards — and perhaps even U.S. distribution — prospects depend on the extent to which the jury decides to recognize it. It’s certainly not out of the question that this year’s jury could do with Sound of Falling what last year’s jury did with Emilia Pérez and award its best actress prize to a group of women.

But for that to happen, the jury would have to pass over — and I’m not sure that they would or should — Jennifer Lawrence, who gives an extraordinary performance in an extraordinarily disturbing movie about postpartum depression, Lynne Ramsay’s Die, My Love, on which J.Law also served as a producer. It’s a true return to form for the four-time Oscar nominee, who won best actress for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook. Mubi, which had a solid best actress contender last season in The Substance’s Demi Moore, apparently really wants another shot at getting across the finish line in that category, as it coughed up an eye-opening $20-plus million for Die, My Love’s distribution rights.

Pockets of people also enjoyed the three star-directed films that played in the Un Certain Regard section. Two, Harris Dickinson’s Urchin and Kristen Stewart’s The Chronology of Water, are still seeking U.S. distribution. The third, Scarlett Johansson’s Eleanor the Great, does have a U.S. distributor, Sony Classics, and could propel 95-year-old June Squibb into the best actress conversation. But these would be more targeted plays, as would be another Un Certain Regard title, Harry Lighton’s directorial debut Pillion, which has avid admirers but won’t play for everyone.

A24’s Highest 2 Lowest, the fifth big screen pairing of Spike Lee and Denzel Washington, screened out of competition. While Spike’s joints sometimes resonate with the Academy (see: BlacKkKlansman), I’m not sure that this one will — although Howard Drossin’s score is particularly memorable. The same applies to the company’s film that’s in competition, Eddington, Ari Aster‘s dramedy about COVID-related tensions in America.

Meanwhile, Focus’ The Phoenecian Scheme, the latest work of whimsy from Wes Anderson, is dryly amusing and features his usual mindblowing production design. But it doesn’t possess the broad appeal of 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel, which was his only narrative feature that ever registered Oscar nominations beyond the writing and crafts categories.

Last year’s Cannes launched the lovely Flow, which went on to win the best animated feature Oscar. Arco, a French-language, Natalie Portman-voiced/produced work of animation, premiered at this year’s Cannes, and could also go far, provided it lands decent distribution. I could see a Sony Classics or IFC (or, as it was rebranded during this year’s fest, Independent Film Company) taking a flyer on it.

I’d also keep an eye on Lucky Lu, the feature directorial debut of Lloyd Lee Choi, a Canadian of Chinese descent. The film, which unspooled in the Directors’ Fortnight section, is sort of a present-day version of The Bicycle Thief, with the action relocated to New York and the victim a Chinese immigrant. Given its small scale and the fact that its largely in Chinese, I hear distributors are trying to gauge whether Canada would submit it for the best international feature Oscar race before taking a leap of faith.

Other Oscar contenders are sure to emerge from the fest’s second week. The competition schedule includes Norway’s Sentimental Value, the reunion of filmmaker Joachim Trier and star Renate Reinsve, who previously collaborated on the Cannes-to-Oscar-nominated 2021 film The Worst Person in the World, and whose latest venture could bring Neon its sixth consecutive Palme d’Or; sales title The Young Mothers’ Home, from Belgian brothers Jean-Pierre Dardenne and Luc Dardenne, who have won more total Cannes prizes than anyone else ever but have yet to land an Oscar nom; and the Josh O’Connor and Paul Mescal vehicle The History of Sound (not to be confused with Sound of Falling), which Mubi is handling stateside.