Goldman Sachs thinks the only notable chance of a recession in 2024 is if something really unusual happens. Otherwise, the bank on Thursday reiterated its position that there’s just a 15% chance of a contraction next year, as inflation continues to decline and interest rate hikes have only a modest impact on labor. “I would think of that as an average level of risk. We’ve had a recession approximately once every seven years in the post-war period, and that gives you 15%,” chief economist Jan Hatzius said during a call with media members. “I think that 15% is mostly exogenous shocks.” One such shock would be geopolitical, including an acceleration in the Israel-Hamas war , which could reverberate through global energy markets. “If that were to spread much more, and brought in a lot of additional powers — and particularly Iran — and we saw a very large spike in oil prices, that would be the sort of shock that could put the world economy, or parts of the world economy, into a recession,” Hatzius said. “There would be gradations in terms of vulnerability. The U.S. would probably be a little bit less vulnerable to an odd supply shock than, say, Europe.” Goldman is more sanguine than much of Wall Street on recession chances, though few see a sharp downturn ahead. Along with his outlook on the economy, Hatzius sees the Federal Reserve waiting until the fourth quarter of 2024 before cutting rates . That would put the U.S. central bank near the back of the pack, with Goldman expecting others to start cutting earlier. However, Hatzius noted that “risks are tilted to earlier cuts,” particularly if inflation should fall faster than expected — or if the economy weakens.
