The Mandalorian and Grogu Will Make Money, But Will It Save Star Wars?

Listening to Disney insiders, their message is clear: The Mandalorian and Grogu will charm audiences and make money, dank farrik.

The latest estimate for the film’s four-day weekend global box office is $160 million-$170 million or more, slightly up over early tracking a few weeks back, with The Mandalorian expected to best the $148 million global bow of 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story. Domestically, it could end up with $95 million to $100 million range for the four days, short of Solo‘s $103 million four-day number over the 2018 Memorial Day frame. In other words, there may be apocalyptic “worst opening for a Disney Star Wars movie ever” headlines come Sunday and Monday.

The film wasn’t expensive by Star Wars standards — it has the lowest production budget of any previous title made since Disney acquired Lucasfilm. But nor was it cheap: $165 million before a global ad campaign of at least $100 million, likely more. Those close to Disney’s decision-making confirm the Jon Favreau film needs to make $500 to $600 million globally to land in the black. Solo topped out at only $393 million globally, but Mando already has far better audience scores that combat heavily mixed reviews, with critics granting it a 62 percent Rotten Tomatoes score. The Mandalorian‘s audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is currently an upbeat 88 percent.

The Memorial Day tentpole is showing particular strength among moviegoers under 13 and men over 55, a potentially potent combination that likely reflects the film’s appeal to families, particularly kids who like Baby Yoda along with boomers who like Pedro Pascal’s Clint Eastwood-in-space persona. (PG titles that play like family pics have become the box office story of 2026; to boot they enjoy incredible holds). Mando grossed $12 million in Thursday previews, even lower than Solo, but it was on par with Avatar: Fire and Ash and Project Hail Mary.

What the box office math ignores is the film’s rising tide effect for the studio. The Disney+ Mandalorian series inspired north of $1 billion in merchandising sales, with the Star Wars franchise in general, generating roughly $1 billion per year. The brand’s most popular toy in 2021 and 2022 was Grogu. So the studio hopes that more Baby Yodas and gaggles of Anzellans will be flying off the shelves. The film is also expected to have a positive impact on parks, premium VOD and Disney+.

“The impact it will have on Disney+ is critically important to us,” says one Disney executive. “Not only could it ultimately end up on the service and get tens of millions of hours of watch views, it will also have an impact on Mandalorian seasons one through three. And what we’re also finding is that it is already helping not only The Mandalorian, but the entire Star Wars catalogue.”

Of course, one would expect any new Star Wars movie — particularly the first in seven years — to boost viewership of other Star Wars titles.

The larger concern from orbit goes like this: Even among those who like the new film, the consensus seems to be that it’s merely good, not typical Star Wars-level operatic great. The franchise’s last movie, 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker, was pilloried by critics and fans, though still managed to squeak past the $1 billion mark globally (people wanted to see how the Skywalker Saga story concluded, but were decidedly unimpressed with the result). And before that came Solo.

And then there were those TV shows, which ranged from the outstanding (Andor, the first two seasons of The Mandalorian) to the panned (The Book of Boba Fett, The Acolyte, Obi-Wan Kenobi).

As we’ve seen with Marvel, one film cannot tarnish a brand, but several titles in a row that are widely viewed as less than worthy can become a drag on a franchise — as former Disney boss Bob Iger himself has admitted (“a little too much, too fast”).

“[The Mandalorian] is actually mostly meeting our ‘mid’ expectations,” one exhibitor said. “No one ever really thought that this would be a massive, colossal success, especially once their piss-poor [trailers] launched. The fan response so far feels like the consequence of making Star Wars not special and forcing it into a never-ending IP factory. They were wise to take a lot of time off after the Rise of Skywalker, but they spent that time making seven live-action shows, only one of which was consistently great.”

Another top exhibitor is of a different opinion. “This movie could play to families in a big way, so it could open closer to $100 million domestically,” the person said.

Another message from inside Disney: the next Star Wars film — 2027’s Star Wars: Starfighter — is far more of a real test, since Mando is a Disney+ series that leapt from the small screen to the big screen. While that may sound like classic goal-post moving, at least one rival executive agrees: “It’s a Mandalorian movie, with very little new Star Wars characters in it. It’s not a Star Wars movie.”

Who at the studio deserves credit or blame for The Mandalorian & Grogu can be framed different ways: The project was greenlit under former Lucasfilm boss Kathleen Kennedy. Yet it’s co-written by the studio’s new co-chief Dave Filoni, who — along with co-writer and director Favreau — were the architects behind several of the Disney+ shows (excluding Andor).

Sources say Disney leadership, including Entertainment Studios chairman Alan Bergman, have  accepted there will always be a core group of fans that will never be happy with any title — whether it involves Star Wars, Marvel, or even Pixar’s upcoming Toy Story 5, which many expect to easily make $1 billion. These sources say Bergman’s mission is to “make entertaining movies.”

And if some don’t feel like The Mandalorian fulfills that mission, there’s always Starfighter (also greenlit under Kennedy). Disney had to be thanking its lucky stars for casting Ryan Gosling in the lead after another Gosling-in-space movie, Project Hail Mary, became a critical, box office and pop culture phenomena this year.

“We’re done shooting Starfighter and it’s being cut together now,” says the Disney source. “We definitely have a plan as to what we’re going to do next with the franchise after that. We’re knee-deep into it. This has been an ongoing plan for a while.”

One exhibitor agrees that Starfighter will represent, as they say, a new hope for the studio.

“Ryan Gosling starred in the most zeitgeist-y crowdpleaser in years and will lead what appears to be Star Wars: Top Gun,” the exhibitor quipped. “So there is a reason to feel positive. Lucasfilm can’t possibly screw that up.”